October – December 2009 January 30, 2010 “Neither a borrower nor a lender be;For loan oft loses both itself and friend,And borrowing dulls the edge of husbandry.” – William Shakespeare, Hamlet Most governments are in an unenviable position – one that no private equity investor would like to be in – fully invested with no …
July – September 2009 October 31, 2009 Dante Alighieri (1256-1321) was a Florentine statesman and poet, who wrote ‘The Divine Comedy’ – one of the finest pieces of literary work. There were three sections of journeys through ‘Inferno’ (or Hell), ‘Purgatory’ and ‘Paradise’. Being lost in the woods and seeking to find the path again, …
April – June 2009 July 29, 2009 Three months is a long time in the stock markets. The pendulum has swung from fear to greed, from pricing too much risk to pricing too little. Junk usually ends a rally, but in this case junk has led it. The misbehavior is not confined to the stock …
January – March 2009 April 22, 2009 The unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus may temporarily halt the economic contraction. In economics, as in life, there are no free lunches. The costs of this profligacy will be starkly manifested in the not-too-distant future. We continue to maintain our cautious stance, but believe that market weakness should …
October – December 2008 January 22, 2009 This large outperformance, relative to the Sensex, gives us no satisfaction – we are in negative return territory with the collateral damage that it does to the power of compounding. ———————————————————————————– Don Quixote: Dost thou see? A monstrous giant of infamous repute whom I intend to encounter. Sancho …
April – June 2008 July 29, 2008 If we are in a bear market, as I think we are, then the bottom will be marked not by the absence of good news, but rather by an increasing supply of good news ignored by the market. Currently I believe we will have an increasing supply of …
January – March 2008 April 26, 2008 It would be useful to again elucidate our philosophy which has not changed. I reproduce an article I wrote a month ago: “The stock market with its daily quotations tends to shorten time-horizons because of the ready availability of alternative opportunities and liquidity. It is difficult to think …
October – December 2007 January 29, 2008 The sub-prime crisis engulfing the banking sector continues to worsen. The looming downgrades and potential bankruptcies of the monoline bond insurers could be the straw that could break the financial systems back. Many banks have used monolines to wrap their products and also bought credit-default swaps through them. It …
July – September 2007 October 29, 2007 Notwithstanding Indias prospects, the dangers of paying too high a price remain. Ben Graham pointed out the dangers of regarding stocks as attractive irrespective of their prices: The notion that the desirability of a common stock was entirely independent of its price seems incredibly absurd. Yet the new-era …
April – June 2007 July 26, 2007 Whilst at this level of the market, it is difficult to come across a gem of an investment idea, I did come across a gem of a book, “The Psychology of Intelligence Analysis” by Dick Heuer. It is available freely on the net, thus having the most important …
