April – June 2008 July 29, 2008 If we are in a bear market, as I think we are, then the bottom will be marked not by the absence of good news, but rather by an increasing supply of good news ignored by the market. Currently I believe we will have an increasing supply of …
January – March 2008 April 26, 2008 It would be useful to again elucidate our philosophy which has not changed. I reproduce an article I wrote a month ago: “The stock market with its daily quotations tends to shorten time-horizons because of the ready availability of alternative opportunities and liquidity. It is difficult to think …
October – December 2007 January 29, 2008 The sub-prime crisis engulfing the banking sector continues to worsen. The looming downgrades and potential bankruptcies of the monoline bond insurers could be the straw that could break the financial systems back. Many banks have used monolines to wrap their products and also bought credit-default swaps through them. It …
July – September 2007 October 29, 2007 Notwithstanding Indias prospects, the dangers of paying too high a price remain. Ben Graham pointed out the dangers of regarding stocks as attractive irrespective of their prices: The notion that the desirability of a common stock was entirely independent of its price seems incredibly absurd. Yet the new-era …
April – June 2007 July 26, 2007 Whilst at this level of the market, it is difficult to come across a gem of an investment idea, I did come across a gem of a book, “The Psychology of Intelligence Analysis” by Dick Heuer. It is available freely on the net, thus having the most important …
January – March 2007 April 24, 2007 As value investors, dealing with uncertainty, we run the risk of making errors of omission – where large gains are foregone because we were trying to minimize the probability of a bad decision. That risk is there in the relatively large cash and near-cash balances we carry. The …
October – December 2006 January 29, 2007 In Greek mythology Lethe is the river of oblivion, from which the souls of the newly departed drunk so that they forget the memories of their past lives. The stock market drinks a punch made from Lethe everyday, forgetting the turbulence and volatility of its past, believing that …
July – September 2006 October 27, 2006 I came across an old book of Garrett Hardin “Nature and Man’s Fate”. Here is a statement I found relevant and interesting. “There was a time when educated men supposed that myths were something of the past – quaint, irrational fairy tales believed in by our credulous and …
April – June 2006 July 26, 2006 A value investor I respect, Whitney Tilson, in a recent issue of “Value Investor” (March 2006) identified eighteen types of value opportunities. Categorising an investment opportunity is important because the time horizon, temperament, timing, time and trouble taken on research and follow-up vary with each category. Out-of-favor blue …
January – March 2006 April 29, 2006 I would hasten to add that not much credence should be given to one quarter or even one year’s numbers. For instance, so far this month, two shares which constitute a significant part of your portfolio performed as follows: Market Price as on 31.03.06 Current Price as on …
